Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

ENERGY RESOURCES AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY PROBLEMS Professor LauTa Randall Department of Economics, Hunter College of the Cíty University of New York ASSUMPTlONS The two assumptions made in analyzing resources and internationaI policy problems are first, that in internatíonal markets, there is a bilao teral oligopoly in oil, and that there are similar concentrations of market power in other energy industries such as nuclear energy. Large shares of energy markets therefore have technical characteristics where quantity i5 determined, but price is not uniquely determined by buyer.s and seIlers; it is set anywhere within a range. This means that non– market mechanisms will determine price, and -by extension- when markets break down as allocating mechanisms, perhaps quantity as well. As recent developments in han indicate, concern will be place increasingly on 10cation of supply, and suppIy lines as well as price will be important to consumers. The second assumption is that within a nation, investment depends upon expectations. Primarily, who is President determines investors' outlook. Secondari1y, it i5 determined by wars and weather; after that, economics comes into play. The technical reactions of an economy lO changes in economic variables are constant, and are important in the following order: government spending, money suppIy, and foreign trade. The resuIt of this ordering shouId be that changes in oiI trade should have Iittle effect upon a nation's economy. This is not the case for reasons which differ for developed and developing nations: the greater impact of the oH crisis on developing nations is a resuIt of the fact that they have Iess diverse economies than those of deveIoped nations. On the suppIy side, they have a smalIer possibility of substituting for oil and oiI.rela,ted goods. The oil crisis is therefore a crisis of a stage of deveIopment, and is linked to the deveIopment of human resources and of access to technology. IMPLICATION '01' ASSUMPTlONS FOR DEVELOPED NATIONS' POLlCY The implications of the assumptions are frightening. In the case of non-market solutions designed to determine the price and quantity 121