Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMfA MUNDI!\L evolved. However, even within those strategies which remain prima– rily capital intensive in nature, some conservation can take place if the capital goods and the technology involved are adapted to the needs of each developing country. In the absence of a drastic shift in planning and policy away from capital-energy intensive methods of production and in favor of labor intensive production of goods and services, the scope for conservatíon is very narrow. One of the major complicating factors in any attempt at conser– vatíon ís the fact that the transportatíon sector is a major user of com– mercial energy. Yet, most developíng countries are lacking in adequate transportadon systems that would facilitate the linking of various regions and sectors of the economy with each other. It ís worth noting that it is in thís sector that a good deal of conservatíon is supposed to take place in the developed countries by reducing unnecessary and inefficient private transporto The developing countries by contrast Iack a comparable opportunity for conservatíon. As to the question of search for alternative sources of energy, all available studies maintain that there will be no major contribution from new sources of energy. To be sure there wilI be a restructuring of the relative contribution of various sources of energy if current and projected policies attain their objectives. According to projections by OECD, depending on the assumed rate of economic growth, the contribution of oil to total energy may decline from 51% in 1974 to either 49% or 50% by 1985. Similar changes are projected with respect to solid fuel, natural gas and hydroelectricity. The decline in the relative contributions of these sources of energy is supposed to be offset by the sharp increase in the contribution of nuclear energy which is projected to increase its share from 2% of the energy market in 1974 to 9% in 1985 10 • It is relevant to note that for both developed and developing countries, nuclear energy is projected to provide an increasíng share of the energy market. It should be remembered, how– ever, that the record of past projection with respect to this particu– lar source of energy has been consistendy optimistic. The projected energy picture of the non-OPEe developing countries is one of continued reliance on the conventional sources of energy with oil being the major source of energy. Current projections indi– cate that the contríbution of the non-oil sources of energy wilI rise from 44% to 49% between 1975and 1985 with that of oil declining from 56% to 51% of total energy consumption. Within this group of lIJOECD, World Energy Outlook (París. 1977).