Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGtTlCO EN AMtRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL oH imports or 7.2% of their total imports 13 • These projections for both groups of countries are based in a recent study by the World Bank on three assumptions: a) that the eeonomies of net energy importers will grow at 5.8% per annum petween 1975 and 1986; b) that the economies of net oi! exporters will grow at 5.9% per year; and e) crude oi! prices will remain constant (in 1975 prices) for the period under consideration 14 • The seeond problem that will eontinue to face these countries is one of access. Even if the issue of finance were somehow to be resolved, the question of aecess to available world energy resources would con ti– nue to bea serious one since they will be forced to compete with other countries, espedally the industrialized countries, for whatever oil will be available in the world market for sale. The third problem is that most of these countries are in the low and lower middle income groups oE the developing countries that are expected to achíeve relatively higher rates of economic growth if the per capita income is not to deteriorate. Having to divert resources to finance energy imports is bound to affect both the course and level of economic development in these countries. But within this group of ome, it is important for poliey formulation to differentiate between two subgroups. The first subgroup is composed of eountries whose per capita ineo– me is higher than that in many oH exporting countries inc1uding most of oPEe member countries. Singapore, for instance, had a per capita income in 1976 ($ 2,700) that was higher than the comparable figure for all the oil exporting countries with the exception of the four Arabian Península countries and Libya. Countries like Brazil, Argen– tina, Hong Kong and Uruguay, similarIy, have a per capita income that ís higher than the comparable indicator in most of the oi! expor– ting countries, including some OPEe member eountries. The other subgroup is the one that, because of its low level of income and its inability to have the ready and easy 'access to the world financial markets and the narrow range of its exports, will have the most difficulty in sustaining an economic growth rate that would be com– mensurate with its needs. Furthermore, most of the Third World population live within the boundaries of this group. OPEe member countries have recognized the two aspects of the problem of oil imporúng countries (supply and financing). At its Vllbid. "lbld. 40