Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL economies of industrialized and developing countries. Yet within these contrasts there are also several areas of importance to both groups of countries. Thus the most stríking difference is in the level of energy con– sumption, matching simiIarly wide vartations in income Ievels. Even more striking is the much greater variatíon in consumption of com– mercial fueIs (in particular oil) . For aIl that, oil -most of which is imported- is a major fuel in both groups of countries, and of critical importance to the modern sector of developing countries. The common concern with supplies and prices of imported oH suggest the existence of common ground for acdon. Furthermore oH, with in developing countries is being consumed largely in the modern, industrial, urban sector, shares many common end uses in both groups of countries so that prescriptions for the more efficient use of oi! in one group of countries may be widely applicable to the other. There i5, additionaIIy, evidence of strongly rising commercial (oH) consumption as development proceeds. The changing structure of developing economies implies an increase in those activities which can only be carried out using commercial fuels. To compound the dif– ficulties, supplies of non-commercial fueIs given population pressures are highly uncertain. This means that adju5tment to future price rises will be more difficult. One of the reasons that the 1973-74 :adjustment went more smoothly than anticipated was that then oH imports ac– counted for only a small part of total imports and an even smalIer part of GDP. But this share is expected to rise steadily in future. This im. plies a third area of common interest -plans to facilitate a smooth adjustment to future oil price rises, through trade policies and externa! assistance. 26