Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL A look at the statistics suggests that Latín American is in comforta– ble positíon in terms of energy self-sufficiency. Estimates for 1975/6 indicate rhat, with the exception of a smaIl deficít in coal, the region is a net exporter of energy with productíon 35% in excess of con· sumption. The situauon with respect to reserves is encouraging. Using reserve estimates from the mid seventies and assuming constant consumption at the 1976 level, petroleum and gas reserves would last 40-50 years, coal and fuel wood fol' hundreds of years, i.e. beyond any relevant time horizon for planning, arnd hydroelectric capacity could be expanded 20 to 30 times. While reserve estimates may change drasti– cally and consumption levels wiII undoubtedly rise, these figures indicate that if some sort of regional supply poliey were adopted, Latin America has both a sufficiellcy and diversity of energy resources to dispell major anxiety on the suppIy side for a considerable periodo In considering mechauisms by which a regional policy might be evolved, there are close to 20 regional 01' sub-regional agencies con. cerned with some aspect of energy planning, production, distribution and consumption. Some are specialized trade associations such as ARPEL and CIER, other are involved in financing such as the lOB, yet others are concerned with trade such as the Pacto Andino and SELA. To-date OLADE has focused principal1y on the politics of energy. CEPAL'S concern is with the economics of energy within the context of development in Latin America. These seven agencies, and about a dozen other, show widely differing structures and objetives but they offer a point of departure in efforts to evolve a concerted regional approach on energy. There are three obvious a~eas for cooperation within the region, wíthin sub-regions, 01' between groupings of countries which face common problems. The first was mentioned by 1\1r. del Canto - the joint development of hydroelectricity and regional ínter-connectiol1's for electric trans– mission. There couId also be vertical integration in energy processing and distribution accross national boundaries. The second is interna. tional cooperatíon witch would facilitate: flow of informatíon on prices, production technology and mana– gement; - development of natíonal human resources capably evaluating new energy technologies, adapting existing 01' new technology to local 242