Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

William Loehr / POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OIL-JMPORTING... contraetíon, and where they have, one ean usually trace economÍc dífficulties to non-energy-related factors. Given the coincidence of sharply increased energy prices and recession in developed countríes, analysis of either factor separately is not possible. It is evident howe. ver that export expansion and economie growth, permited most Latin American countries to avoid most problems that couId have been re1ated to oil-price hikes. This ineludes problems of increased indeb– tedness. Oil price increases imply different adjustments for countries at different levels of development. Internal structuraI changes as well as balance of payment adjustments are likely to be most difficult for countries at the Iowest income IeveIs, despite currently low oil "de. pendency". To ensure that the poorest countries are not overly bur– dened, steps should be taken to ehanel OPEC surpluses to them and to establish a world tradíng system within which they can hope to expand exports. Countries at this level are inclined to face greater diffieulties in adjusting to higher petroleum prices, and when those problems cannot be overcome without income contractíon, debt relief and concessionary finance schemes should be made available. Oil price increases have surely hurt all oil-importing developing countries. For most this does not mean disaster, but it does require more careful management and an international environment which is flexible enough to accomodate the changes that developing countries must take to pursue reasonable development objetives. BlBLlOGRAPHY 1. ALEXANDER, T. (1979) "Govern– ment Can Help More By Doing Less", FORTUNE (Sept. 24) 84·90. 2. BALDWIN, R. E. and MURRAY, T. (1977) MFN Taríff Reduction and LDC Benefits under GSP". Economic Journal 87,345 (March) 30·46. 3. BALASSA, B. (1978) "The 'New Pro– teccionism' and the International Economy", Jot.rnal 01 World Trade Law 12:5 (Sept/Oct) 409-36. 4. BERRIE, T. W. and LESLlE, D. (1978) "Enel'gy Poliey in Developing Countries", Ene¡'gy Policy 6:2 Gu– ne) 119-27. 259 5. BIRD, G. (1978) "The Choice Bet– ween Balance of Payments Adjust– ment and Financing", Malayan Economic Review 23:2 (Oct) 16·20. 6. CEPAL (1975) América Latina y los Problemas Actuales de la Energ{a (México: Fondo de Cultura Eco– nómica). 7. CEPAL (1979) "La evolución econó– mica de América Latina en 1978", mimeograph, pp. 26. 8. COHEN, S. D. (1978) "Changes in the International Economy: Old Realities and New Myths", }ourna! 01 World Trade Law 12:4 GulYI August) 273-87.