Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

William Loehr I POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OIL-IMPORTING... LDCs, IDCs and MDCs imply that growth rates of energy use for each may take on entire1y different trend characteristics. Moreover, the po– ssibilities for conservatíon in energy use, brought on by higher prices, are greater at higher development levels. Incentives to drive Iess, reduce heat and air conditioning and reduce walSted energy in indus– try, can only be effective if people already drive, heat and posess industry. Empirical studies, (Sankar, 1975; CEPAL, 1975) al50 indicate that increased oil prices have had a greater negative effect upon the terms of trade oí LDCs than those of higher development leveIs. We have also seen that each country's ability to adjust to the kinds of balance of payment problems implied by high prieed energy, de– pends upon an ability to borrow and successfully manage to increase exports. In this regard the IDCs have a distinet advantage over LDCs. Their ability to borrow and manage debt has been demonstrated. IDCs industrial eapadty and export eapabilities are diversified and expanding. It has also been shown (Weintraub 1979; Baldwin and Murray, 1977) that the IDCs have benefited relatively more than LDCs from the world trade liberaliza,tion that has oceured within the fra. mework of GATT and {rom the Generalized System of Tariff Prefe– renees (GSP). The only advantage that LDCs might have is that of the newcomer. They have not yet established a large capital stock, and as they do so they can take advantage of recent technological advances which in– crease both energy and economic efficiency. IDCs and MDCs are "10- cked into" a capital stock designcd to produce at low marginal cost when energy was cheap. .Tust as an individual does not immediately scrap a large fuel-consuming automobile when the price of fuel rises, industries do not immediatel.y incorporate the latest energy-efficient technology (though both wish they had had more foresigth and flexibi– lity) . Newly industrializing countries, investing in capital stock for the first time, can choose the technology which is now most efficient, and after doing so may be able to compete quite favorably with currently more advanced countries. Unfortunately, ba,lances of pay– ments require adjustment in the short run and will not wait for newcomer advantages to be realized. PROBLEMS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL EOONOMlC ORDER As Índicated aboye, long run adjustment to high priced energy re– q uires export expansiono The key to this is borrowed capital (in the 235