Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

William Loehr / POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OIL-IMPORTING... Other examples abound. lncreased fuel casts in 1973-74 caused sharp fertilizer price increases in 1974-75. Permanent shortages of fertílizer and the implied declines in food production were widely discussed. New fertilizer production capacity coming "on stream" during that same period however, expanded the suppIy and created enough excess capacity that world fertilizer prices in the late 1970's were not much different than in pre-energy-crisis days. (Loehr, 1979) Similarly, increased truck or even aír transportation are not necessa– rily economically ineffícient l .... hen compared to raíl. The Iatter may be more energy efficient that the others in terms of energy used per ton-kilometer, but it is not flexible. If truck and air transport con– tribute to increased production efficiency because production is doser to sources of suppIy., or because time is saved, ete., they may indeed be more energy efficient in the same way that e1ectricity use is. Specifíc steps to increase both energy and enocomic efficiency must be formulated to fit the conditions of each country. Net energy ana– Iysis can be used as an aid in assessing projects, tax schemes or techno. Iogical developments (Loehr 1976) but cannot be used as a compre– hensive guide to steps which "should" be taken to deal with high priced petroleum. Net energy analysis should not be substituted for considerations of economic efficiency, especiaIly in developing countries at lowest leveIs of development. The least developed countries (LDCs) must still make the once-only transition from traditional agrarian societies to industrialized* ones. lt has been observed that the rate of growth of energy consumption in poor countries is greater than rates of growth of national income and the reverse in developed countries. (Alnasrawi, this conference; Sankar 1975) . The relationschip is illus– trated in figure 1. Conntries at points like A, with low income, but trying to modernize their economies must make structuraI transfor. mations which occur only once. These imply shifts from non.energy intensive activities (peasant agriculture) to those which are more energy intensive (industry). This transition in the United States occured between abont 1890 and 1920 (Darmstadter and Schurr, 1976). Countries like B are similar to most Latín American countries. They are no longer primarí1y traditional agricultural economies, but have shifted to increasingly efficient industrial bases. Services begin to become relatively more important, and by the time more developed ·We include "modern" agriculture in the term "industtialized". 233