Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

William Loehr / POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OlL-IMPORTING... mcreased exports in the longer run, Panama's growth rate dropped from very high levels preceeding 1973 (7.4%) to only 0.4% 1974-77. With the possible exception of Panama, in countries facing extra– ordinary difficulties in the 1974-77 period, problems can be traced to sources other than oil price increases. This is not to say that the latter are unimportant, for they surely make abad situation worse. But most oil-importing countries of the region were able to adjust to petroleum price increases by active policies to sustain growth and exports expansion through the period, relying upon external finance when needed. In three of the "problem" countries, difficulties can be traced to mismanagement which was occuring in any evento Even countries which in 1974 couId not have been considered in sound economic health (Le. in group 3) were able to improve vastly their position. Costa Rica, Paragua'y and Uruguay each ended 1977 in much better shape than they ended 1973, though Uruguay may have overly reIied upon a "BraziIian" model and may expect "Brazilian" problem's in the future. ADJUSTMENT-INTERNAL The key to internal adjustment to high-priced petroleum is to maÍn– tain and improve upon economic efficiency. The internal sector cannot be easiIy separated from the international, since the expansion of ex– ports and growth patterns examined aboye are dependent upon each country's ability to improve upon its competitive position vis-a-vis other countries. One must pay careful attention to each country's investment pattern and cost structure, as well as differences between labor productÍvity and/or inflatíon rates when compared to major trade partners (Cohen, 1978). These considerations are also of con– cern to oil exporters, since while oil may be produced cheaply, its opportunity cost in use is the world price. Maintaining and improving upon economic effidency requires making investments and reallocating resources to take into account new cost relationships. Relatively higher oil prices imply that invest· ments in hydroelectric facilities or development of coal resources which were not efficient before 1973, may now be. The energy alter– natives to petroleum are varied and their economic feasibility depends upon the economic and physical environment in which each country finds itself (see Mullen, 1978b). Sorne of the possibílities and the investments implied by them are discussed by Friedmann. (1976), 231