Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMiA. MUNDIAL Evén without petroleum price increases we should have expected income and export growth rates todip in 1974-75. Tablé 5 shows that while export growth dropped in 1974-77, in most cases it dropped from very high, to moderate levels. Immedia– teIy prior to 1974, exports of most Latin American countries were growing very rapidly. AH countries experiencea drop in exports in 1974-77,compared to 1973-74, except the Central American countries and Uruguay. Despite declines in export growth rates, Paraguay, Nicaragua and Brazil continue to turn in strong export performance. Only in the Dominican Republic, Panama, Chile and Peru were exports sharply curtailed in 1974.77. In the latter two countries, the tendency for exports to fall is distorted by extraordinary copper priées in 1974. Those record prices carne after very depressed prices in 1973, and therdore "artificialIy" raise1974 exports as a point of refe. rence. Argentina's growth rate (approximately zero) in the 1974-77 period wouId normalIy have made adjustment to oil price increases difficult, but her petroleum imports are arelatively small part of total imports, and she has successfulIy reduced that proportion further between 1974 and 1977. In addition Argentina's rate of export expansion (~.9%) has been adequate to prevent the balance of payments from deteriorating and to reduce the debt service burden.Uruguáy is. in a sensitive position in havíng some of the highest oil dependency in the regíon (25% of imports in 1977). Nevertheless, this. does not seem to have been overly burdensome, since both the growth rat~ in GDP and in, exports havebeen increased. Negative reserves of 1974 had become positive in 1977, despite the oil price increases and this appears attributable to the vigorous export growth and an ability to borrow. Despite borrowing, Uruguay's debt service burden increased only slightly over its traditionalIy high leveI already existing in 1973. On the basis of the data presented here, it must be sai~ that most oil-importing Latín American economies have performed quite well given the balance of payments strain of increased oil prices and reces– sion in the developed world. In general growth has been sustained, on a base of expanding exports, without extraordinary debt acumu· lation u . CEPAL (1979) índicates that exports andimportsfor non-oil exporting Latín American countries·"· have increased at about the' UFor more on the assessment of the debt situation see Smith 1979. •• ·CEPAL'S definition of non-oil-exporting countries ineludes countries in addi– tion to those examined here. 228