Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL petroleum to import relatiomhip. Given their inidal positions the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Nicaragua seem to have ade· quately managed reserves, though problems since 1977 have p1agued the latter. Reserve problems do not appear to be adequately solved for Chile, Panama, Peru and Brazil. The first two continued to be unable to build reserves greater than debt service. Problems signaled aboye for Peru caused that country's position to deteriorate considerably by 1977. Debt built up before 1973 began to play an increasingly negative role in Peru's attempts at balance o( payments adjustment and sharp devaluations of the Sol, while slowing some imports, have not been able to close Peru's trade gap. Brazil's position has probably deteriorated mOre than most, espe. cially given it8 status in 1973. Reserves relative to imports are still high (28%) but are much below 1973 leve1s. Furthermore debt service has about tripled. O( all countries only Brazil experienced an increase in the ratio of oH imports to total imports (from 23% in 1974 to 32% in 1977) . Reserves simpl,y reflect each country's ability to withstand abrupt shocks to the balance of payments. It is possible that reserves are built up through borrowing which implies a future adjustment pro– blem. Furthermore. as pan of a slightly longer·run adjustment ma– neuver we anticipa te that countries will bonow to finance any ex– traordinary imbalance imposed by the oH cost increase. We lhere– fore turn to table 4 to d~termine whether the reserve positions exa– mined aboye came only at a cost in terms oí debt accumulation or, whether there were simultaneous structural changes that allow both reserve improvement and imply no greater debt burden. Debt service ratios of 1960 and 1970 are incIuded in table 4, to show that sorne countries are now in a stronger debt service position than at the beginning of this decade, 01' even ten years before. Argen– tina, Brazil, Peru and Chile have been the heaviest bonowers of the regíon, but more recently have been joined by Uruguay and Panama. Among group 1 countries, with the big exception oI Brazil, debt servÍce rados were 10wer or about the same as they were in 1973, and even 1970. Brazil's problem comes about not only because of heavy debt accumulations but by a lag in export proceeds beginning in 1977. Exports expanded by only about 4% 1977·78. In the 1974-76 period the debt service to export ratio ranged between 13 and 15.1%. 224