Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL available, for foreign currencies earned by OPEC are on deposit in pri– vate banks participating in the "Eurocurrency market" (wich includes us and Japanese banks). Unfortunately, the ability to obtain finan. cing in this market differs widely from country to country. Many have little experience dealing in prívate money markets and their "credit worthiness" is cIosely monitored. Countries with the best credit records and best prospects for future growth and stability, get the largest loans and the most favorable terms (Friedmann, 1976). Those that have the best prospects for export expansion present the greatest likelihood that when repayment is due, hard currencies wiIl be availabIe to affect it. ADJUSTMENT IN OIL-IMPORTING LATIN AMERICA Let us turn now to the experience of oíl-importing Latín American countries to try to determine how well they have dealt with the "energy crisis". Reserves are the starting point since they are the means by which countríes can get over sharp imbaIances, of a 1973-74 mag– nitude. Externall debt positions and export performance indicate how weH countries have been able to provide themselves with "medium" and "long" .term solutions. Overall, countries which adjust without suffering sharp reductions in aggregate output can be said to be ade- quately weathering the crisis. - Table 2 shows the position in which Latín American, oil-importing countries found themselves at the beginning of the energy crisis in early 1974. The thirteen countries examined are each placed into one of three groups, depending upon their ability to manage the very short run problem of sharply increased oil prices. To determine these positions we have caIculated "net" reserves in colum C, and the increase in petroleum import costs between 1973 and 1974 (colum F). We then check, in colum 1, whether net reserves were adequate to cover increased oil import expenditures. Group 1 is composed ol the five countries which had adequate reserves to finance the increased cost of petroleum in 1974. Countries in Group 2 and reserves which would have been completely used in financing increased oil costs and in the cases of El Salvador and Honduras, additional reserves would be needed. Group 3 countries aH had payments adjustment problems in any event, since in each of these five cal5es, reserves were inadequate to cover 1974 debt service. 220