Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

Willíam Loehr / POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OIL-IMPORTING_•• But financing only pushes the day of final income reduction into the future unless exports grow by enough in the meantime to offset the deficit and amortize the debt accumulated during the adjustment periodo Thus, while the lalfge oil-induced deficits of the mid-1970's imply some damage to all oi! importing countries, these negative effects can be minimized by those countries best able to use reserves, obtain financing and eventually expand their export positions. The financing of the overall deficit for oH importing countries taken as a group comes automatically. OPEC countries have onIy a limited range of ways that their oilsurpluses can be disposed of. They can increase their consumption, which requires increased imports from non.oil producers. Surpluses can be invested abroad or simply held as reserves. In either case the money invested or held as reserves, usmully referred to as "recyeled" petrodollars, appears as positive figures in the capital accounts of the countries where investments are ·made or whose corrency is held as reserves. Many of these reserves are held in the forro of foreign currency deposits (usuaUy dollars) in Euro-currency markets and constitute a form of liquidity which can be drawn upon (borrowed) by countries or individuals in need of it. While the overaIl financing of the oil importing countries' deficit is automatic through this recycling process, individual oi! importers may be hard pressed to finance their specific deficit. Most of the latter are de'v-eIoping countries. Since IQPEC countries do not force their investments and reserve accumulation to take place in propor– tion to each country's'oil deficit, sorne oil importers will have balance ol payments surp!uses alter "retycling"; others have deficits. Japan. Germany and other West European countries have continued surpluses despite heavy dependence upon imported oil. They are the countries that are most favored by OPEC countries in their ·search for investments and their currencies are a relatively favored form for reserve holdings. Since IQPEC countries are usual1y paid in dollars the us oi! deficit is also largely seU financing. However, dollar denominate assets have often accumulated at rates exceeding the rate at which OPEC countries wish to hold them. Attempts to convert dollar assets into other (Marks; Yen; Gold; etc.) usually means that pa'Its of the us deficit are not automatical1y financed. Recent instability in the us dollar is largely due to these sorts of adjustments in dollar denominated as opposed to other assets. While developed country deficits are more or less automaticalIy financed, developing countries must seek financing. Funds for this are 219