Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL The petroleum "problem" is one of high price rather than physical shortage per se. Though price increlllses of 1974 magnitude are not likely, further increases can be expected. Hammoudeh's (1979) survey of seven major optimization models of OPEC price behavior indicates that steady and gradual price increases are optimal, but that no major jump in prices is predicted. AIso, current oil prices are still below the levels which would induce major substitutions of non-conventionaI fuels (Madian, 1979). Temporary shortages may occur from time to time due to .shifts in sources of supply or unusualIy large demands placed upon the world system by fIuctuations in economic activity in the developed, OECD countries. These shortages .should be shortlived however and not of great long-run concern. (See also Mullen, 1978a). Policies should aim at adjustment to high priced energy. These adjustments are of two main types. First, since most countries are oil importers, a change to high priced energy causes a disequilibrium in the balance of payments. 'Ve will examine the kinds of balance-of– payments adjustments which are possible and those that have actuaIly been chosen. Secondly, internal changes will be required to bring each economy's productive structure into equilibrium with the new set of prices existing after the energy price increases. Clearly, balance of payments adjustments imply sorne immediate and .short run con– cerns since if specific steps are not taken to finance balance-oE-pay– mens probl,ems "adjustments" of a perhaps unde.sirable nature will automatically be forthcoming. Structural changes can only occur with time and are therefore of much longer run concern. AD]USTMENT: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Sharply increased petroleum prices have an immediate and negative impact upon the current account (goodsand services) of oil importing countries. One must recall that the balance of payments reflects a flow of payments over time, and that the yearly or quarterly data which we see reported are so presented for accounting convenience. The factors which cause the balance of paryments to "balance", occur continously, and any disturbance to any part of the balance of pay– ments, inmediately sets in motion a chain of events which offset the disturbance. Sorne of these offsetting factors are desirable and others are not and it is the task of balance of payments managers to ensure that the factors allowing adjustment are most favorable (or least costly) to the economy. 216