Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

William Loehr I POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OIL-IMPORTlNG••• (Alexander, 1979). If Communist-Bloe and OPEC eountries are exclu– ded, the remaining reserves are still good for fifty years. HistoricaUy the current suppIy picture does not appear worse than it did during periods when energy erises were not thought to existo Table 1 shows thalt in terms of reserves, there may have been more of a crisis at the end of World War 11 than there is currentIy. Reserves known to exist at that time would have Iasted less than twenty years. Reserves of 1973 were not significantIy different from those of one decade earlier in terms of the ratio oí reserves to production. To estimates of petroleum from traditional sourees we must also add that which is now becoming feasible from so-ealled. non-conven– tional sources. Synthetic fuels can be extraeted from coal, and in South Africa coal liquification plants have already come "on stream" to provide a significant share of that country's energy needs. Presu– mably coal, which is widely di.sbursed throughout the worId and which exists in great quantity, can add significantly to world energy supplies. Similarly the oi} shale existing in the western part of the United States is safely estimated to contain 200 billion barreIs of oi! given current extraction technology. That alone amounts to almost a thirty year suppIy for the US (Nulty 1979) . Sorne estimates of the potential pro– duction from oi! shale put the figure at three times this quantity. In each case estima tes assume that international oil prices remain in their current range. Oil from shale for example is though to cost between fifteen and thirty dolIars per barre!. Table 1 WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES AND PRODUCTlON Year Reserves at Yr. end Productíon Millions oJ Barreis 1944 1963 1973 50.684 309.633 627.856 Source: CEPAL (1975). p. 24. 215 2.593 9.498 20,153 N9 Years production given f'eserves 19.5 82.6 31.2