Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

POST 1973 ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS OF OIL-IMPORTING LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES William Loehr Visiting Professor, Institute of International Studies, University of Chile INTRODUC110N Discussions of growth and development policy in deve10ping coun– tries (LDCs) cannot faíl to overIook the wild-wide shHt from cheap, to high price energy. Manyfold increases in petroleum prices cannot help but ínflict damages on any oH importing economy, no matter the level of development. However. the extent oí those demages is not the same in all cases, and each economy's ability to adjust to high priced energy will determine the severity of the damages done. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to look at the nature of the adjust– ments demanded by the "energy crisis" and the success of LDCs in meeting them. Throughout, we will consider the experience of Latin American countries, but will try to extend OUt reasoning to other areas where we believe the arguments are general ones. In the end we will make sorne statements about e<.Onomic policy in LDCs. In doing so we wiII refer to both internal and international policy problems and attempt to relate poliey positions to countries at different deve– lopment levels. THE ENERGY "CRISIS" The energy "crisis' of the early 1980's is not likely to be one of general shortages. At eurrent prices there is not likely to be an inability on the part of oíl importers to buy oil. While estimates of petroleum reserves are very difficult to make, Itnd the various estimates are often ineon– sistent, there seems to be considerable consensus that, for the time being, enough petroleum is known to exist to suppIy worId needs for sorne time. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austri aJ) has surveyed 28 independent estimates of reserves. They concIude that at a price of twenty (1976) dollars per barreI, and given current consumption rates, world reserves willlast for ninety-five years 214