Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

DESARROLLO ENERGÉTICO EN AMÉRICA LATINA y LA ECONOMiA MUNDIAL olten in remote or difficult areas and much less is known about them. However, the higher price of oil justifies increased expenditures for petroleum exploration in areas which previously did not promise economic returns. Further, the price oí oil is now high enough to cover the cost of exploiting known reserves of oil and gas that were previously uneconomical to exploit-either because they were too small. and the cost of recovery too high, or because transport was too expen– sive. Economic returns to the countries on these projects are likely to be high, on average aboye 30%. In sum, our preliminary estimates of the energy balance of oil im– porting countries indicate that there may be serious constraints for their future economic growth. At the same time, many of these coun– tries have potential for inereasing their production of oil and/or gas. However, some of these countries lack, not only the necessary teehnical skills and financial resourees to develop their potential, but also the experienee to pIan a estrategy for the sector. The World Bank's intention is to oHer these countries financial and technical help to plan and develop their energy strategy and resources. Of course, not all countries need help at every stage. "Ve see the Bank's role as essentially catalytic to attract the maximum flow of private investment and technical know-how into the petroleum sector. PART n. THE BANK'S LENOING PROGRAM Until 1973, Bank financing for energy was almost entirely devoted to eleetric power expansions. Bank invoIvement in oil/gas was mainly in the financing of trans– portation facilities, oil and gas pipelines in Pakistan, Yugoslavia and a few other countries. Quadrupling of oil prices in 1973 increased the oil import biIl of LDCS for 4 billion dollars in 1972 to 26 billion dollars in 1978 and is likely to reach 42 bilIion dollars in 1980. This heavy burden in their balance of paymants has been handled in the short term through a . considerable increase in borrowing from both public and private sources. LDC'S external debt doubled in real terms in the period 1970. 77and debt service is increasing in absolute and, most importantly, in relative terms as a proportion of export revenues and GNP. During the period 1977·85, further increases are projected from 11.8% to 18.1% of exports and from 3.1 % to 4.6% of GNP. The main institutions concerned with the short term adjustment J62