Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

Frank F. Zarb I ENERGY PROIlLEMS OF THE UNITED STATES AND••• The people in the United States understand the law of suppIy and demand and can be expected to complain but accept a reasonable bads for higher prices. However, spot shortages and resultant econo– mic dislocation (such as higher unemployment) couId contribute to a worsening of public attitude toward exporters. Truth N93. AH sectors of the United States economyare adjusting very rapidly to use less energy per unit of output. Our historie rate of growth in energy consumption has been 3Y2% per year. It will drop belot\1 3% this year and will be under 2% by 1985 or sooner. For the first time since it has been measured, we have found a deerease in energy growth per unit of real GNP growth (see Tables 1 and 2). The industrial, transportation and residential sectors are all showing important improvements in energy consumption efficiency. Truth N9 4. The primary factor stimulating the high rate of conservation in the US is the price of oil. This condusion leads to three important observations: First: The American people are not wastrels: they respond to values in the market place. For example -when gasoline was cheap there was a demand for big fuel ineffident automobíles. Now that gasoline is over $ 1 per gallon and inereasing there is big demand for fuel efficient automobiles. The same basic reaction is seen all over major sectors of the economy. Second: price controls on crude oil imposed by the US Government in 1971 and maintained through the 1970s tended to hold back meaningful energy conservation. Price contro1s have also retarded development of alter. native forms of fuel. Third: Attempts to force conservation through methads other than prite have, for the most part, failed. Truth N9 5. In addition to using 1ess energy per economic unit, the United States can and will increase its production of domestic energy. This renewed effort to produce is stimulated by higher inter– nationaloil prices. Truth NQ 6. US Produced Crude OH is currently approximately 8Y2 million barreIs per day. That IeveI should inerease to at least 9 míllion barreIs per day over the next six years. During the same periad natural gas production which is currently 19 trilion cubic fee[ per year should increase to 22 TCF per year. Truth NQ 7. While there will be a new excess profits tax imposed 117