Desarrollo energético en América Latina y la economía mundial

ENERGY PROBLEMS OF THE UNITED STATES AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS Frank F. Zarb Lazard-Freres and Co. Former Advisor on Energy to the President of the United States 1 have been asked to discuss Energy Developments in the United States Economy and their relationship to international events. In an effort to be brief and cover all essential sectors, I have prepared my remarks in summary formo I hope that my comments "lill provoke further discussion. I will outline my own conclusions -"lhich result from a' combination of statistical data and personal experience. There are others "lho could -using the same data- come to different con– clusions. Thus, "le could have a healthy academic disagreement, or at the very least some questions to which 1 am prepared to respondo 1 have organized my talk into what 1 caH 15 truths about energy. 1 realize that one man's truth is not al"lays shared by others and that to call them truths in the first place is somewhat presumptuous. However, 1 have spent many years "lorking on the energy problem and 1 have reached a number of conclusions. This forum provides me "lith an ideal opportunity to share them. Truth N9 l. In our "lorld, oil and natural gas are finite. Mankind staTted the consumption process (which "lill lead to the eventual elimination of all oil and gas) when the first barrel and the first eubie foot was used. Because of the finite character of these two natural resources they are very valuable and their value "lil! eontinue to grow in real terms in the years ahead. Truth N92. In the short term, producers of oil who are net expor· ters will act in a manner which is perceived to be in their best interests. That means production restrictions to keep suppIy tight, leading to occasional spot shortage and price increases to adjust for world inflation and to further accumulate real wealth. Over the short term the actions of the exporters will often be vie"led as not being in the best interests of importing countries; thus leading to a periad of continued stress and política! uneasiness bet– ween the two. 116