Chile: the balanced view : a recopilation of articles about the Allende years and after

1-5 years old 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31 years and_'over 110,400 HECTARES 31,200 ·56.900 79,600 49,200 16,300 2,100 345,700 HECTARES The current consumption of pine boards and the production of panels, pulp, and paper (including the requirements of the planned Constitución Cellulose Plant) demands 6.4 mili ion cu m s. s. c. Taki ng an average of 400 cu m per hectare for 20 years, 1,6,000 hectares per year are needed to meet the pfesent rate of consumption -a pace that cannot be maintained with present plantations. Furthermore, since this is an industry especially susceptible and suited to expansion( a r.eplanting policy must be established immediately in order to maintain the already established plants and to facilitate the establishment of new industries. Assuming as a theoretical estimate that 10 million hectares of deforested lands were reforested 'on a 25-year rotating basis, 400,000 hectares would become availablefor cutting every year. At 400 cu m per hectare, 400,000 hectares would produce 160 million cu m per.year, which equals approxi mately 30 mili ion tons of pul p and paper (assuming for the moment that this would be the only use for the timber). The foreign currency income repr,esented by the above estimates at present prices of paper and cellulose, which are high, would fluctuate around $ 12 billion (US$ 400 perton). If the price were half the present level, revenues would still be close to $ 6 billion. Of course. a cubic meter of lumber commands a. higher price than raw material for pulp and cellulose; therefore, the preceding estímate ís a simplification designed to show only the country's potential as projected to the end of the century or the beginning of the yaar 2000. In addition, these estimates consider only deforested lands. The handling and exploitation of planted forests on 10 miilion hectares would give employment to 350,000 men, without taking ¡nto accouflt individual s employed in the . numerous industries that would use timber. Afforestation of 100,000 hectares peryear would give initial, permanent employmentto 10,000 individuals andwould require an investrherit of US$ 15 mili ion. Equipment per man would require a minimal figure. Chile should obtain a long-term credit of approximately $ 15 million asan emergencyfund totake careof its unemployment problem. This is probably one of the cheapest means of providing useful employment, especially if there are sufficient nurseries and plantations to maintain thepace of afforestation. After the first year, which would be financed with foreign credit, the country has to put into practice a system designed to maintain the rate of afforestation. At the same time, there must be a lawthat adequately supervises the exploitation of natural forests by requiring the reforestation of areas that are cut every year. , V. INDUSTRIES Programs in this field are extremely diversified, and at the present moment it is difficult to establish an adequate order of priorities, which depends to a great'degree on the state of the prójects and on the large-scale policies that will be established. . The following might be considered criteria for arriving at important decisions: a) Industries that satisfy the needs of a high proportion of the national population; b) Industries that represent a high value added, such as agricultural industries and industries related to forest and other natural resources, especially when they supply export markets at internationally competitive prices; 240