Chile: the balanced view : a recopilation of articles about the Allende years and after

If 1970 prices are used as a basis lar comparison, the variation quantum can be measured lor agricultural production, estimating the value 01 anticipated production in future years and arriving at the lollowing group 01 values: National Farm Production valued al 1970 prices Year Agricultural Cattle Total Index 1970 2,770 3,493.7 6,264.4 .100 1971 3,009 3,544.8 6,545.7 105 1973 2,276 3,148.3 5,425.1 86 1974 2,479.6 3,627.5 6,107.1 96 1976 3,234.4 4,036.9 7,271.3 116 1980 4,402.8 5,469.5 9,872.3 155 Chilean imports 01 food products in 1973 and 1974 were and have been projected as follows: 1973 1974 $ 619 million $ 653 million The higher figure for 1974 is explained by the farhigher prices at which food products will be imported during 197~ as comparedto 1973, althoughthe quantities imported will be lower. Good examples 01 this trend in prices are imported wheat, which cost US$ 155 per . ton in 1973 and will cost US$ 232 perton in 1974, and beef, which was imported at US$ 1,460 per ton in 1973 but will cost US$ 1,800 per ton in 1974. If it is assumed that import prices will remain at the 19741evels, Chilean food products will be approximately 75 percent.domestic and 25 percent imported. Since the value of imported foodstuffs will be $ 650 million, the domestic contribution of lood must be estimated at $ 1.95 billion and'the total at $ 2.6 billion. By 1976 the population will have grown by 3.6 percent. Therefore, in terms of t974 import prices, $ 2.694 billion in foodstuffs will be needed. However, since national produc– tion will have increased by 116:96 =20~~, ,the value ofthetmal volume ofloodstuffs should be $ 2.35 billion. In other words, by 1976 the value 01 necessary imports will have dropped to only $ 344 mili ion, with a saving 01 $ 306 million over the imports needed in 1974. If international prices for 1976 drop to their 1973 level, the cost of imported foodstuffs would be reduced by atleast another $ 100million; that is, the total saving would be $406 million. By 1980 the Chilean population wiJl have increased by approximately 13 percent. Therefore the food requirements willincrease from $ 2.6 billion in 1974 to.$ 2.95 billion in 1980. Irr turn, national production will increase by 62 percent over 1974, thus reaching $ 3.15 billion and providing an exportable surplus. This surplus figure will be more important than is indicated by the preceding figures, since by 1980 Chilean production will include products of higher value than those that are currently produced. Consequently, in? relatively short time (which may extend beyond 1980, since this program is considered optimistic in relation to the time required to fulfill it), food imports will be eliminated, and there will b~ an exportable smplus. IIJ. FISHING . Despite the abundance of fish in Chilean waters,fishing has been insufficiently 238