Proceedings of the 12th International INQUA meeting on paleoseismology, active tectonic and archaeoseismology

86 PATA Days 2024 1 2 T H I N T E R N AT I O N A L I N Q U A M E E T I N G O N PA L E O S E I S M O L O G Y , A C T I V E T E C T O N I C S A N D A R C H A E O S E I S M O L O G Y ( PATA ) , O C T O B E R 6 T H - 1 1 T H , 2 0 2 4 , L O S A N D E S , C H I L E K E Y W O R D S Surface faulting, Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis, distributed faulting, dip-slip earthquakes (1) Department of Engineering and Geology, Università “G. D’Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy. paolo.boncio@unich.it, alessio.testa@unich.it, bruno.pace@unich.it (2) INGV – Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy. (3) IRSN—Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France. Oona. (4) RINA Consulting S.P.A., Milan, Italy. *Email: paolo.boncio@unich.it, alessio.testa@unich.it, bruno.pace@unich.it / francesco.visini@ingv.it, alessandro.valentini@ingv.it / scotti@irsn.fr, stephane.baize@irsn.fr / fiia.nurminen@rina.org Paolo Boncio (1) Francesco Visini (2) Alessandro Valentini (2) Oona Scotti (3) Alessio Testa (1) Fiia Nurminen (4) Stéphane Baize (3) Bruno Pace (1) THE CHALLENGE OF ESTIMATING THE HAZARD FROM DISTRIBUTED EARTHQUAKE SURFACE RUPTURES :DIP-SLIP FAULTS A B S T R A C T This work improves existing PFDHA models by introducing innovative approaches for assessing the hazard from distributed ruptures (DRs) associated with both reverse and normal faulting. Using the SURE 2.0 database, which categorizes DRs into different categories, logistic regression models are utilized to evaluate the likelihood of DR occurrence. Factors such as earthquake magnitude, proximity to the principal fault, faulting style, and DR location are considered as predictive variables. Furthermore, a fault displacement model is developed to estimate the median throw on DRs based on these parameters. The findings provide insights into the characteristics and probability of DRs, with implications for PFDHA applications. The study aims at aiding PFDHA practitioners in selecting the most appropriate models based on their geological expertise. This research contributes to an enhanced understanding of fault displacement hazard analysis and presents a flexible framework for its implementation across diverse geological settings.