Proceedings of the 12th International INQUA meeting on paleoseismology, active tectonic and archaeoseismology

444 PATA Days 2024 R E F E R E N C E S Dickinson, W.R. (2000). Hydro- isostatic and tectonic inf luences on emergent Holocene paleoshorelines in the Mariana Islands, western Pacific Ocean: Journal of Coastal Research, 16, 735–746. Kayanne, H., T. Ishii, E. Matsumoto, and N. Yonekura, (1993). Late Holocene sea- level change on Rota and Guam, Mariana Islands, and its constraint on geophysical predictions: Quaternary Research, 40, 189– 200, doi. org/10.1006/qres.1993.1071. Mueller, C.S., Haller, K.M., Luco, N., Petersen, M.D., and Frankel, A.D. (2012). Seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1015, 52 p. Muhs, D.R., Schweig, E.S., and Simmons, K.R. (2020). Late Quaternary sea-level history of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, USA: A test of tectonic uplift and glacial isostatic adjustment models. Geological Society of America Bulletin; 132, ¾, 863–883; doi.org/10.1130/B35162.1. Riegl, B.M., Purkis, S.J., Houk, P., Cabrera, G., and Dodge R.E. (2008). Geologic Setting and Geomorphology of Coral Reefs in the Mariana Islands (Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) in B.M. Riegl and R.E. Dodge (eds.), Coral Reefs of the USA, © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Ruff, L., and Kanamori, H. (1983). Seismicity and the subduction process: Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 23, 240-252. Uyeda, S., and Kanamori, H. (1979). Back-arc opening and the mode of subduction: Journal of Geophysical Research, 84, 1049– 1061, doi.org/10.1029/ JB084iB03p01049. Zhang, J., and Lay, T. (1992). The April 5, 1990 Mariana Islands earthquake and subduction zone stresses: Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 72, 99–121. C O N C L U S I O N S We conclude that the Mariana subduction zone is likely capableofM9-class earthquakes thoughnonehaveoccurred in the historical period. Given the 6.3 cm/yr subduction rate and the short 200-year historical record, there may be at least 12 m of accumulated strain. Considering that megathrust events may sustain tens of meters of slip, and that such events may cluster in time, the absence of an historical megathrust event is not a surprise. A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S We thank Kleinfelder for the opportunity to be involved in a project in Guam during which the lead author conducted preliminary field work on the raised Holocene notches and fossil (probable Holocene) coral reef.