Proceedings of the 12th International INQUA meeting on paleoseismology, active tectonic and archaeoseismology

Fig. 3: Tsunami model of a hypothesized Mw 8.4 earthquake near the trench producing a tsunami with amplitudes over 9 m at the coast and inundation over 1 km inland at the studied area A1- a; b - Close-up to tsunami inundation depths at the studied area where sites A1 and A2 preserve tsunami deposits from the 1300 AD tsunamigenic earthquake. c - Tsunami amplitudes along the Guerrero segment of the Pacific coast of Mexico. (Modified from Ramirez- Herrera et al., 2024). Our interpretations are supported by a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including sedimentology, diatom analysis, and topographical comparisons. While secondary processes may influence the observed changes, the primary driver remains the tsunami events. We have employed a variety of methodologies, including radiocarbon dating, magnetic susceptibility analysis, and tsunami modelling, to reconstruct the sequence of events and estimate their magnitudes. Our findings suggest a ca. 2000-year history of variable occurrence of large tsunamis, likely triggered by local earthquakes along the Guerrero coast. Tsunami modelling scenarios have provided insights into the potential magnitude and impact of future events. Our preferred model, Scenario T5, suggests a near- trench earthquake with a magnitude exceeding 8.6 could generate tsunami amplitudes capable of inundating the study area more than 1 kilometre inland (Fig. 3).