Proceedings of the 12th International INQUA meeting on paleoseismology, active tectonic and archaeoseismology

404 1 2 T H I N T E R N AT I O N A L I N Q U A M E E T I N G O N PA L E O S E I S M O L O G Y , A C T I V E T E C T O N I C S A N D A R C H A E O S E I S M O L O G Y ( PATA ) , O C T O B E R 6 T H - 1 1 T H , 2 0 2 4 , L O S A N D E S , C H I L E PATA Days 2024 K E Y W O R D S Surface faulting, Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis, Earthquake geology, Italy (1) Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, Como, Italy. (2) Sogin S.p.A., Roma, Italy. *Email: m.pizza@uninsubria.it M. Pizza (1) M. Colombo (1) M. F. Ferrario (1) F. Livio (1) M. Roncoroni (2) M. Rosati (2) PROBABILISTIC FAULT DISPLACEMENT HAZARD ANALYSIS (PFDHA) : AN APPLICATION IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE REALIZATION OF THE ITALIAN NUCLEAR WASTE REPOSITORY A B S T R A C T In the framework of the realization of the Italian Nuclear Waste Repository, 51 areas, potentially suitable to host the plant and located in 5 cluster zones, were selected in Italy. Here, we explore a Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis approach in one such cluster zones, located in Monferrato (Northern Italy). The zone is, dominated by reverse faults, but the historical and instrumental record is sparse, due to the low seismicity rates. We perform a PFDHA on the closest fault to these areas. We selected the input parameters to the code, including the fault parametrization (e.g., kinematics, fault area, slip rate) and the empirical relations regulating the i) probability of occurrence of surface faulting, ii) Average Displacement (AD ⃒ Magnitude and iii) displacement ⃒AD. Here, we present the results for the annual frequency of exceedance on the principal fault, but we envisage to analyse distributed faulting, as well and to explore different seismotectonic settings in Italy. I N T R O D U C T I O N In the framework of the siting analysis for the Nuclear Waste Repository, 51 areas, potentially suitable to host the plant, have been identified in 5 cluster zones, in Italy. These areas are the result of the application of the ISPRA (now ISIN) guidelines (ISPRA, 2014), which includes 15 exclusion criteria; one of these, CE-3, excludes all the areas potentially affected by the surface faulting. In order to choose the definitive site to build the plant, it will be necessary to conduct a Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA). In this work, we begin to explore this issue by focusing on one cluster zones, focusing on the methodological aspects of the process.