I Simposio de Postgrado 2023. Ingeniería, ciencias e innovación

I SIMPOSIO 2023 CALCULATING IGNITION PROBABILITIES OF POWERLINES CAUSING WILDFIRES: A CASE IN CONCEPCIÓN ABSTRACT As climate change drives an increase in wildfire frequency and severity, the vulnerability of power lines to igniting catastrophic fires becomes a pressing concern for electric utilities. To address this challenge, we introduce a comprehensive modeling framework aimed at assessing the fault probability of power lines and the associated risk of sparking wildfires. This framework is implemented as a computational tool in Python, and by leveragingweather data, fragility analysis, and protection settings, our model accurately quantifies the probability of wildfires caused by powerlines. Moreover, we integrate a qualitative approach to gauge line fault propensity, considering factors like nearby vegetation and maintenance practices. This study extends beyond theoretical development, showcasing practical applicability and scalability. The methodology focuses on obtaining a fault line probability as well as an ignition probability to determine the final wildfire probability.Therefore, through the usage of authentic weather data and graphical maps, we demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness within the context of Concepción’s 66 kV transmission system in Chile. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis enhances risk mitigation strategies against potential wildfires, further contributing to fire prevention efforts. By offering a robust solution that aligns with real-world conditions, our model empowers electric utilities to proactively address wildfire threats, enhancing system resilience and safety. This work underscores the urgency of fire prevention measures and provides a valuable tool for safeguarding power infrastructure in regions prone to wildfire events. Overall, our integrated approach advances the understanding and management of wildfire risks in power transmission networks. María José Aranda 1* , Rodrigo Moreno 1,2,3 , Ángela Flores 1,3 1 Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Universidad de Chile. 2 Imperial College London. 3 Instituto de Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería. *Email: mararanda@ug.chile.cl